About

Convex Bets is an investment blog focused on fundamental long and short opportunities, primarily in U.S. SMID-cap stocks, with occasional coverage of UK and European names.

I am a former long/short hedge fund analyst with experience focused on SMID caps across the U.S., UK, and Europe. Most of my professional background was on the short side, with a focus on stocks that were likely to miss consensus estimates. This shaped the way I think about investing. The bull case is often already well articulated by both the Street and management, while the bear case is typically downplayed. As a result, I spend most of my time thinking about the downside.

Investment Focus

The blog covers long and short opportunities selected with a generalist, opportunistic mindset and a fundamental approach. The typical time horizon is 2–3 years or longer for longs and around a quarter to a year for shorts.

What You Will Find Here

Content on Convex Bets includes:

• Investment ideas, both long and short
• Updates on material information related to published ideas
• Performance updates on previously posted ideas

The goal is to publish 2–3 investment ideas per quarter, alongside consistent updates when meaningful new information emerges.

How I Think About Investing

My investment approach is grounded in a few simple principles:

• Keep it simple
• Change my mind fast
• Focus on what matters
• Be driven by facts and data
• Prioritise breadth and focus over exhaustive depth
• Think probabilistically and treat investing as a series of bets

Who This Is For

Convex Bets is written for professional investors and serious retail investors looking for fundamental analysis and idea generation.

Contact

I am always open to meeting new people and connecting with other investors.

You can reach me at info@convex-bets.com or on X at @cvx_bets.